Inspired by this tweet.
Most people think they can outsmart a deck of cards. They think that by watching, waiting, or timing their move, they can force an edge into existence.
They can't.
The rules are simple: Flip cards from a shuffled deck. At any time you can say “stop.” You win if the next card is black.
The Illusion of Certainty
As you flip cards, the numbers shift. If you see five reds in a row, your brain starts screaming that the next one has to be black. You think you’re collecting data. You think you’re getting closer to the truth.
You aren't. You’re just building conviction. And conviction is a dangerous byproduct when the base rate is fixed.
Live Win Probability
Under the hood, this is a symmetry trap. You can delay for information, but you can’t change the deck. Any strategy that favors black now must accept red later. Every "clever" move—waiting for an even count, stopping after a red streak—locks back to exactly 50%.
Pick a Strategy
The Startup Parallel
This hits home in startups: delay gives you more information about whether you’re right, not a higher chance of being right. You can build conviction, but the underlying probability of success hasn’t budged.
So what’s the move? Know your odds, then act. If the base rate is fixed, the long-term risk-minimizing strategy is taking the bet early, before you burn time and attention collecting information that doesn’t change the payout.
Don't wait to be right. Just move.
- The Question: Is this new signal actually changing the odds, or only my confidence?
- The Answer: If it doesn’t change the payout, ship it. Take the meeting. Flip the card.
The deck doesn’t care how long you stare at it. But your future does.